No. 1 Ohio State (4-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) giving 17 at No. 73 Illinois (1-1 ATS, 2-1 SU)

No. 3  Nevada (3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) giving 20.5 at No. 55 UNLV (2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU)

No. 82 UTEP (1-2 ATS, 2-1 SU) giving 15 at No. 120 New Mexico (0-4 ATS, 0-4 SU)

No. 16 SMU (3-1 ATS, 2-2 SU) giving 12 at No. 57 Rice (2-2 ATS, 1-3 SU)

All on the road, but a lot of good on real bad.

Florida International is No. 10 in TSR rankings with two impressive covers so far in 2010.

Got bit by the road bug last week, going 5-6 to even out the 2010 record at 15-15 (93-80-2, 54.2 percent since 2009). Hindsight being 20/20, eight of my 10 team picks were on the road and I went 2-6 on those, 2-0 on home teams and I hit the over (66) on the Cal-Nevada game while badly missing the outcome of that 51-32 demolition by the Wolfpack last Friday against the Bears.

With Saturday not going well after East Carolina (+17 ½) not only lost a third quarter lead but didn’t cover the spread in its 49-27 loss at Virginia Tech, I loaded up on Utah against New Mexico and erased my losses for the day in the 56-14 Utes victory.

Trying to zero in a little bit this week with fewer picks, and have a better balance of home and road, with 3 home teams, 4 on the road and one total.

Enjoy the pics of Alex and Michelle, twin sisters on the Florida International dance team. The Golden Panthers easily have the best unis in college football, and the team is a surprising No. 10 in the TSR rankings at 2-0 ATS coming off an impressive cover and near-upset at Texas A&M last weekend as a 4-TD underdog.

No. 7 Nevada (2-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) at No. 96 BYU (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU)

Line: Nevada -4

The Pick: Wolfpack

I don’t usually like to flip-flop, but I became a born-again Nevada fan last Friday. The passing game really has given them a dimension they’ve lacked in the past and quarterback Colin Kaepernick is now averaging 365.6 yards per game in total offense, good for second in the country behind Michigan’s Denard Robinson (410 yards/game). Nevada is No. 4 in the nation in time of possession at nearly 35 minutes per game, while BYU is struggling to convert third downs (30 percent), is -3 in turnover margin and is holding the ball for only 27 minutes per game. Nevada rolls.

No. 18 Idaho (2-0 ATS, 2-1 SU) at No. 119 Colorado State (0-3 ATS, 0-3 SU)

Line: Vandals -7 ½

The Pick: Idaho

The Rams stink on grass and have been outscored by a total of 106-19 against Colorado, Nevada and Miami-Ohio. The Vandals, coming off a 30-7 win against UNLV last week, win big again.

No. 6 Stanford (2-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) at No. 34 Notre Dame (2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU)

Line: Cardinal -4 ½

The Pick: Stanford

Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS, but both covers have been by a mere half-point, in Week One against Purdue and last week in its stunning 34-31 OT loss at Michigan State. Stanford, meanwhile, has been overwhelming its opponents averaging more than 51 points per game, beating the spread by a whopping 4 TDs per game on average. The Cardinal and quarterback Andrew Luck are No. 3 in scoring offense, No. 16 in total offense in the nation going up against an Irish defense that is anything but fightin’ ranked No. 102 in the NCAA.

No. 116 Akron (0-2 ATS, 0-3 SU) at No. 39 Indiana (1-0 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Line: IU -22 ½

The Pick: Hoosiers

The Hoosiers have averaged 44 points per game this season against similar opponents to Akron, putting up 52 against Towson and 38 against Western Kentucky. The Zips hung around a bit with Kentucky last week, trailing 13-3 late in the first half before eventually falling 47-10 to the Wildcats. Akron is being outscored by an average of 31.5 per game, and also lost to 1AA Gardner-Webb in an unlined game in Week Two. IU puts up a big number at home and covers going away.

No. 71 Oregon State (1-1 ATS, 1-1 SU) at No. 13 Boise State (2-0 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Line: Boise State -17 ½

The Pick: Broncos

Style points matter for Boise State even more now that Virginia Tech shit its pants against James Madison, putting a huge question mark on what was supposed to be a quality win in its quest to crash the BCS party. The Broncos showed off last week at Wyoming, beating the chaps off the Cowboys 51-6 a week after Texas earned a more modest 34-7 win against them. Boise should dominate this game and will refuse to let up on the scoring against a Beavers team that gave up 28 to a really bad Louisville team last week.

OSU is No. 107 in total offense and No. 105 in total defense. Oregon State is converting only 28 percent of its third downs and is controlling the ball for less than 24 minutes per game, living off its +4 turnover margin. The Beavers can’t count on any such charity from the Broncos, who finished last year +20 in turnover margin.

No. 5 Oregon (2-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) at No. 38 Arizona State (1-0 ATS, 2-1 SU)

Line: Ducks -11 ½

The Pick: Oregon

Much is being made of the Sun Devils’ narrow 20-19 loss to Wisconsin last week, which is the only way to explain a line of this size against a team averaging an incredible 63 points per game. Wisconsin is 0-3 ATS, giving up two defensive scores at UNLV in Week One and puttering around in a 27-14 win against San Jose State in Week Two.

The Ducks are scoring more than a point per minute and have already proven to be able to go on the road and romp, reeling off 48 straight after trailing 13-0 at Tennessee in front of a much more hostile crowd than they’ll see in Tempe.

No. 83 Memphis (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) at No. 51 UTEP (1-1 ATS, 2-1 SU)

Line: UTEP -11 ½

The Pick: Miners

The Tigers got off the schnide last week with a SU and ATS win at home as a 5-point dog against Middle Tennessee, taking advantage of 4 turnovers by the Blue Raiders. UTEP romped in Week Three with a 42-10 win against New Mexico State, and I look for a similar score this weekend. Memphis’ D is allowing 436 yards per game and its pass D is even worse, ranking No. 111 in the nation. The Miners average 466 yards to rank No. 18 in total offense and No. 19 in time of possession at more than 32 minutes per game.

No. 68 Georgia (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) at No. 69 Mississippi State (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU)

Total: 47

The Pick: Under

The Bulldogs of Mississippi State are averaging a total of 40 points per game, the Bulldogs of Georgia 46. Both of those totals are skewed by Miss. State’s 49 against Memphis and Georgia’s 55 in Week One against Memphis and Louisiana-Lafayette, respectively. Since then, both teams have scored a combined three touchdowns each in their next two games. Georgia’s offense is struggling without WR AJ Green and Mississippi State is pretty one-dimensional on offense with an inconsistent passing game that ranks No. 72 in the nation.

I got nothing for you on this crapshoot tonight between Cincinnati and North Carolina State, but I do have some picks on the Friday action.

No. 31 Kansas (1-0 ATS, 1-1 SU) at No. 104 Southern Miss (0-1 ATS, 1-1 SU)

Friday, ESPN

Line: Southern Miss -5 ½

The Pick: KU

Apparently the Jayhawks’ commanding 28-25 win against then-No. 15 Georgia Tech hasn’t earned them much love. KU started the season and the Turner Gill era on an awful note by losing 6-3 to 1AA North Dakota State, but Southern Miss isn’t exactly a worldbeater and was on the receiving end of a 41-13 spanking itself from South Carolina to open the season.

KU has Big 12 talent, enough speed to handle Southern Miss pro prospect wideout DeAndre Brown and an up-and-comer at quarterback at Jordan Webb. They aren’t going down to another lower tier opponent.

No. 14 California (1-0 ATS, 2-0 SU) at No. 17 Nevada (1-0 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Friday, ESPN2

Line: Cal -3

Total: 66

The Pick: Bears, over

Nevada has a nice offense and has averaged 50 points in 2 games thus far. But it’s hard to see how the Wolfpack keeps up with Cal in this one, homefield or otherwise. The Bears have scored 52 in each of their first two games against UC-Davis and Colorado. Nevada thrives on the run, averaging 295 yards per game after becoming the first school to have three 1,000-yard rushers during 2009. In its first two blowouts against Eastern Washington and Colorado State, the Wolfpack also showed an ability to pass averaging 297 yards per game.

Nevada is No. 1 in the nation in total offense, so I’m making a rare pick on the over in this one. The Wolfpack doesn’t fare well against BCS-level competition and is ranked No. 70 in total defense (after ranking No. 96 in 2009) despite its weak schedule so far. Cal will push 50 again while allowing around 24. Bears win big.

No. 44 Maryland (1-0 ATS, 1-1 SU) at No. 93 West Virginia (0-1 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Line: WVU -10

The Pick: Maryland

I’m glad I bought this at +13 on Monday, but I still like it at +10. Two teams on opposite trends, with the Terrapins showing signs of leaving 2009 behind while West Virginia was underwhelming against 1AA Coastal Carolina and needed a series of fluke plays to come from a 21-3 deficit to beat Marshall 24-21 on a field goal in OT. Marshall was shellacked 45-7 by Ohio State in Week One.

Maryland has fast D and an offense that’s rushed for 241 yards per game thus far with a solid stable of running backs, including Dave Meggett’s son Davin. The offensive line is blocking well and the Terps have a chance for a straight up win here.

No. 13 East Carolina (2-0 ATS, 2-0 SU) at No. 86 Virginia Tech (0-1 ATS, 0-2 SU)

Line: Hokies -17 ½

The Pick: Pirates

The Hokies may not start the season a once unthinkable 0-3, but they will have their hands full with East Carolina. The Pirates are averaging 50 points per game so far in two wins against Tulsa and Memphis, and Virginia Tech hasn’t yet shown the ability to stop anybody, play Beamer ball or do more than wing it on offense. Dominique Davis has hit 58 percent of his passes for 627 yards, 8 TDs and just one pick so far for East Carolina and is going up against a Tech D ranked in 104 in pass defense. Davis has also rushed for 3 scores.

The Hokies should get off the schnide against East Carolina, but a loss couldn’t be any more shocking than losing to James Madison.

No. 116 Colorado State (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU) at No. 36 Miami Ohio (1-1 ATS, 1-1 SU)

Line: Miami -8

The Pick: Redhawks

The Rams are horrawful, and have yet to score a touchdown in 2010. CSU was beaten 24-3 by rival Colorado in Week One and 51-6 by Nevada in Week Two. Miami Ohio held Florida in check for large chunks of its opener and handled its business against Eastern Michigan. The Redhawks didn’t cover an unrealistic line of -14, but did win by a touchdown. EMU is showing signs of life at 2-0 ATS following an 0-12 SU campaign in 2009, while Colorado State is looking as bad as ever. Miami Ohio rolls here.

No. 64 Utah (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU) at No. 118 New Mexico (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU)

Line: Utes -23

The Pick: Utah

I’m going to bet against New Mexico until it bites me. They’ve been outscored 124-17 in two games. To recap previous weeks: the Lobos suck ass, less than 30 is a good price, etc., etc.

No. 18 Indiana (0-0 ATS, 1-0 SU) at No. 60 Western Kentucky (1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU)

Line: IU -12

The Pick: Hoosiers

This is Indiana’s first lined game of the year after going 7-4 ATS in 2009, mostly as an underdog of course. The Hoosiers run the increasingly popular Pistol offense and took strides toward respectability by hanging tough in most games throughout last season. They hung 51 on 1AA Towson in Week One before an open date. After going 0-12 in 2009, Western Kentucky still stinks. The Hilltoppers have been terrible despite their .500 mark ATS. WKY beat the number by ½ in its 49-10 loss to Nebraska, then the Shitkickers followed that up with a 63-28 loss to Kentucky. Indiana wins by around 4 TDs.

No. 29 Houston (1-0 ATS, 2-0 SU) at No. 114 UCLA (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU)

Line: Houston -3

The Pick: Cougars

Here is a Conference USA team that can knock off a BCS level opponent, and Houston won’t care that this win could come against a down, 0-2 UCLA team.

UCLA has stumbled badly out of the gate, losing 30-21 at Kansas State and 35-0 at home to Stanford. The Bruins are -5 in turnover margin and converting a measly 18 percent of their third downs.

Houston could be without all-time leading passer Case Keenum (concussion), but backup Cotton Turner was 9 of 10 for 69 yards and a TD in relief against UTEP in the Cougars’ 54-24 win last Friday. Turner is a junior, and got all the reps this week with Keenum’s status uncertain. Houston’s offense is too much for UCLA to contend with no matter who’s at QB.

No. 108 Akron (0-1 ATS, 0-2 SU) at No. 10 Kentucky (2-0 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Line: UK -25

The Pick: Wildcats

Akron lost 29-3 to mediocre Syracuse in Week One, then became yet another of this season’s 1A teams to lose to a 1AA opponent. The Zips went down 38-37 in OT to Gardner-Webb last week.

Kentucky pounded Western Kentucky 63-28 last week, following up a 23-16 win against cross-state rival Louisville; the Zips are No. 110 in total offense and No. 95 in total defense. Wildcats by 4 TDs.

No. 87 Middle Tennessee State (0-1 ATS, 1-1 SU) at No. 117 Memphis (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU)

Line: MTSU -5 ½

The Pick: Blue Raiders

Like New Mexico, I’m going to keep betting against Memphis. Middle Tennessee is down to its third quarterback this year, after Dwight Dasher was sidelined for potential NCAA violations and Logan Kilgore missed the Raiders’ game against Austin Peay with a toe injury. He’s in a boot this week, but Jeff Murphy should be enough for Middle Tennessee to cover this number against hapless Memphis. The Tigers have allowed 49 points to each of their first two opponents while managing just 12 points per game.

Murphy had 14 rushes for 67 yards and was 23 of 36 for 301 yards in the 56-33 win against Austin Peay.

The Blue Raiders’ rushing offense will be big trouble for Memphis. Middle Tennessee averages 250 yards per game while Memphis is allowing 185. Mississippi State drove it up and down on Memphis, the Raiders should too.

More Katelynn this week in honor of Oregon's 72-0 thrashing of New Mexico last week.

Not a bad debut week for The Spreadsheet Report, but not great either. TSR went 4-6 to open the season, but I didn’t feel too bad about 5 of the 6 losses. Only UConn failed badly to cover in its turnover-plagued 30-10 loss at Michigan.

Against the opening line, TSR was 5-4-1, but I go by the closing line for record-keeping purposes. Dating to 2009, TSR is now 82-71-2 (54.2 percent).

I missed on Wisconsin by a hook as the Badgers allowed 2 defensive TDs to UNLV; Missouri outscored Illinois 20-0 in the second half but wasn’t enough to overcome a 10-point halftime lead; Navy had 7 trips inside the red zone against Maryland and scored just 14; and Clemson beat the opening line of -23 but didn’t cover the closing line of -29 in its 35-10 win against North Texas.

On the flip side, the 4 Week One wins were all blowouts. Oregon (-36) beat New Mexico 72-0; Mississippi State (-21) beat Memphis 49-7; Fresno State (-2) beat Cincy 28-14; and Arizona (-14) beat Toledo 41-2. Check out the right-hand rail for links to coverage for all 120 teams.

So without further ado, TSR’s Week Two picks:

No. 38 Hawaii (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU) at No. 70 Army (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Line: Army -3

The Pick: Hawaii

Hawaii marched it up and down the field against USC before the Trojans knocked QB Bryant Moniz out of the game in the third quarter. The Warriors still tacked on two more TDs after Moniz was out, losing 49-36 while racking up 588 yards of offense.

This is a long trek across the country for Hawaii, and an early kickoff to boot (6 AM island time), but they should be all right with a 10-day break between Game 1 and Game 2. Hawaii arrived in NY at noon on Sept. 8, giving the Rainbows a few days to lose the jet lag. Army struggled to knock off Eastern Michigan in Week One, winning 31-27 on a TD with 38 seconds remaining and missing the -9 point line. EMU was 0-12 in 2009.

Hawaii may start this one off slow, but their offense is plenty dynamic and should outpace Army. Catching points makes Hawaii a solid play here.

No. 26 Idaho (0-0 ATS, 1-0 SU) at No. 68 Nebraska (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Line: Nebraska -29

The Pick: Idaho

The Huskers destroyed Western Kentucky 49-10 in Week One, covering the opening line but missing the closing number by just a hook. There’s a big difference between WKY, which was 0-12 in 2009, and the Vandals, who started last season 7-0 ATS, have a high-scoring offense and won their bowl game 43-42 over Bowling Green. The Vandals opened their season with a 45-0 win against North Dakota.

This is a great amount of points for a team that can score and plays with confidence. The Huskers roll, but Idaho catches them slipping enough to cover this line handily.

No. 51 Bowling Green (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU) at No. 80 Tulsa (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU)

Line: Tulsa -17

The Pick: Bowling Green

As a two-TD dog, Bowling Green hung in with Troy before losing 30-27 on the road. Tulsa was made a favorite by a TD at East Carolina and lost 51-49 in a wild Sunday shootout.

This is just a sick amount of points for a Tulsa D that couldn’t stop East Carolina at all going up against a perennially high-scoring offense at Bowling Green. Falcons cover this one with a chance to win straight up.

No. 24 Wyoming (0-0 ATS, 1-0 SU) at No. 114 Texas (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Line: Texas -29

The Pick: Cowboys

Like Idaho, here is another chance to catch almost 30 points on a team that finished 2009 win a bowl game win. The Cowboys shocked Fresno State in OT to close out last year, and they actually led this game against Texas at halftime last year playing at home.

The Horns were 4-TD favorites against Rice in Week One and never threatened that number, with its biggest lead the final margin of 34-17.

No. 88 Texas Tech (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU) at No. 120 New Mexico (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU)

Line: TT -25

The Pick: Red Raiders

Texas Tech still has a high-scoring offense under first-year coach Tommy Tuberville and shouldn’t have any trouble rolling up a huge total against the Lobos, who were bitch-slapped 72-0 by Oregon in Week One. Anything less than 30 is a great buy here. The Red Raiders were favored by a little too much Sunday (-14) against SMU, a team on the come-up with a run-and-shoot offense under June Jones. The Raiders controlled the game throughout although they didn’t cover in the 35-27 win. New Mexico gets embarrassed badly again in this one.

No. 81 Louisiana-Monroe (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU) at No. 5 Arkansas (0-0 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Line: Arkansas -34

The Pick: Razorbacks

The Hogs were shutout in the first quarter against 1AA Tennessee Tech in Week One before putting up 44 straight points. With a few kinks worked out, Arkansas should start faster in Game 2, put 40+ on the board again this weekend in Little Rock and beat this number easily.

No. 118 Memphis (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU) at No. 69 East Carolina (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Line: ECU -14

The Pick: Pirates

Memphis remains dogshit terrible after going 2-10 in 2009. The Tigers were hammered 49-7 by Mississippi State in Week One while ECU put up 51 in its win against Tulsa. Memphis scores no more than twice in this one and the Pirates should put up more than 30 to beat this line.

No. 57 Arkansas State (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU) at No. 110 Louisiana-Lafayette (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU)

Line: Ragin’ Cajuns -2

The Pick: A-State

The Red Wolves should be brimming with confidence after hanging within two scores of Auburn for most of Week One as a 32-point underdog, eventually losing 52-26. A-State racked up 323 yards passing and was +2 in takeaways against SEC power Auburn. Lafayette, meanwhile, was getting hammered 55-7 by Georgia. ASU wins this one straight up.

No. 20 Georgia Tech (0-0 ATS, 1-0 SU) at No. 104 Kansas (0-0 ATS, 0-1 SU)

Line: GT -13

The Pick: Wramblin’ Wreck

Georgia Tech beat South Carolina State 41-10 in Week One while KU started the Turner Gill era with a 6-3 loss to 1AA North Dakota State at home, a defeat overshadowed by the even more shocking 49-48 2OT win by Jacksonville State at Ole Miss. This is a surprisingly low spread for the defending ACC champion. Take advantage.

No. 14 Oregon will be without RB LaMichael James against No. 103 New Mexico.

Some recent player suspensions caused a little shuffling in the preseason rankings. No. 4 Middle Tennessee State (10-3 ATS in 2009) has been dropped to No. 13 after the indefinite suspension of star QB Dwight Dasher. Dasher took five $300 loans to play poker from an 80-year-old war vet at an area hospital. There’s been no word on how long it will take to clear Dasher, but if he is back by Sun Belt play the Blue Raiders should be poised to rack up big offensive numbers. For now, their game against Minnesota has flipped from MTSU as a 4 ½ point favorite to a 3-point dog.

At Mizzou, top RB Derrick Washington (865 yards, 10 TDs in 2009) has been suspended indefinitely for a sexual assault charge. The Tigers have been aware of Washington’s problems for a while though, and should still be OK against Illinois. Washington doesn’t look likely to return any time soon though, and Mizzou has dropped 10 spots in the rankings to No. 48.

At Oregon, top returning RB LaMichael James (1,546 yards, 14 TDs in 2009) will miss the opener against New Mexico for a previously scheduled suspension for an offseason “physical harassment” charge. Like Mizzou, Oregon has known they’d be going without James in the opener and should have no trouble with New Mexico. Because James’ suspension is one game, no change has been made to the Ducks’ ranking.

There are a number of potential suspensions on tap at No. 28 North Carolina for possible amateurism and academic violations involving its top returning starters, but nothing has been announced with the game against No. 76 LSU looming this weekend. UNC opened at -1.5 but the game is off the board for now. The Heels did not release a depth chart with their weekly game notes. Coach Butch Davis said the chart is “fluid.”

Here’s the revised Top 25:

TCU is No. 5 in the preseason TSR rankings.

Week One is upon us, and you just know you want to be betting all these games even though you don’t know shit about ‘em. Here’s my top 10 picks, with rankings based on 2009 performance and returning starters in 2010. TSR posted a 78-65-2 (54%) record after the bowl games after going 57% in the regular season. My bowl picks went 13-18-1 after I introduced human error into the process. Simply going with the higher ranked team in each game would have yielded a mark of 18-13-1 (59%) in the bowls, a fact to keep in mind when making this year’s postseason picks.

I went through all 120 teams and added a factor for returning starters, combining that number with last year’s score. I weighted the returning starters, giving more points for linemen, linebackers and running backs, less for secondary and WRs and the most for returning your QB.

So if you did well against the spread last year and are bringing back most of your team, you move up, like TCU from No. 15 at the end of 2009 to No. 5 at beginning of 2010; or Bama dropping from No. 11 to No. 27 because they return 1 starter on D.

The returning starters will only be a factor from weeks 1-3, then everyone will be ranked on straight performance. Rankings listed are for 2010, records are against the spread and straight up from 2009.

No. 1 UConn (9-2-1 ATS, 8-5 SU) at No. 94 Michigan (4-7 ATS, 5-7 SU)

Line: Michigan -3

The Pick: UConn

UConn coverage

Michigan coverage

There are a lot of reasons to take UConn in this game, and that’s why it’s ranked the top mismatch of Week One. The Huskies return 8 starters on offense — including senior QB Zach Fraser and 4 of 5 offensive linemen — and 6 of its front 7 on defense. The group was 5-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2009, and capped the year with a 20-7 bowl win against South Carolina. Michigan is at home, where The Big House hasn’t meant much in the last three years. The Wolverines are 1-6 SU at home in the last three years in games with a line between +3 and -3 and are 7-8 SU at home overall in that time according to scoresandodds.com. Michigan is also 4-10 ATS as a home favorite in the last three years, a record that includes a 0-3 mark ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less. Michigan ranked No. 77 nationally in total defense in 2009 and returns 7 starters from that unit, but lost its top lineman, top linebacker and top cornerback to graduation.

No. 119 Arkansas State (2-9 ATS, 4-8 SU) at No. 47 Auburn (6-6 ATS, 8-5 SU)

Line: Auburn -31

The Pick: Auburn

Arkansas State coverage

Auburn coverage

One of the worst teams in the country ATS in 2009, Arkansas State returns only 9 starters from that team and will get jumped on early and often by high-powered Auburn. The Tigers return 16 starters from a team that stumbled midway through last season after a 5-0 start before recovering for a near-upset of eventual national champ Alabama (lost 26-21) and a 38-35 bowl win against Northwestern. I’m looking for a score around 49-10 in this one, with Auburn putting up at least 35 by halftime.

No. 19 Navy (6-5-1 ATS, 10-4 SU) vs. No. 105 Maryland (4-6-1 ATS, 2-10 SU)

Monday, Sept. 6, at Baltimore

Line: Navy -7

The Pick: Navy

Maryland coverage

Navy coverage

Navy was a solid pick against BCS-conference competition in 2009, going 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU including wins against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and a 38-13 thrashing of Missouri in its bowl game. The Midshipmen return 12 starters and three of four in its backfield, including quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who rushed for 1,203 yards and 27 TDs in 2009 to lead Navy’s fourth-ranked running offense (280 ypg). Dobbs also passed for 1,013, 6 TDs and returns his top two receivers. Navy returns both tackles but is replacing the middle three spots on its o-line. The Terps return 10 starters from a disaster of a team that ranked No. 98 in scoring offense and No. 100 in scoring defense. Maryland does return its three starters at linebacker, which should help against Navy’s run game but is breaking in a first-year starter at QB and an all-new backfield. Maryland has also lost its top two tight ends and three backup linebackers to injury in the preseason.

No. 103 New Mexico (5-7 ATS, 1-11 SU) at No. 20 Oregon (7-6 ATS, 10-3 SU)

Line: Oregon -33

The Pick: Oregon

New Mexico coverage

Oregon coverage

Oregon is actually a good buy here at fewer than five TDs. New Mexico is f’n terrible, and returns 8 starters from a team that only managed a respectable number ATS in 2009 because the Lobos caught 17 points on average, getting outscored by nearly 20 points per game. Only New Mexico State (+18), Western Kentucky (+17.8) and Washington State (+24.7) caught more points in 2009 than New Mexico. One of their covers was against a sick 45-point spread against Boise State in the season finale for both. The Lobos lost by 41. Were it not for losing its starting QB and repeat criminal offender Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon would have ranked in the top 10 entering 2010 with 18 returning starters from its Pac-10 champion team. Like Auburn, I expect the Ducks to roll up at least 35 by half and cover this line going away.

No. 22 Wisconsin (6-6 ATS, 10-3 SU) at No. 95 UNLV (3-8 ATS, 5-7 SU)

Line: -20 ½

The Pick: Wisconsin

Wisconsin coverage

UNLV coverage

Following a 20-10 loss to Iowa, Wisconsin scored an average of 35.8 points in its final six, which includes a 20-14 win against Miami in the bowl game. Wisconsin had just three wins by a margin greater than this spread last year, but all three came down that final stretch. The Badgers scored an average of 39.3 in games against Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford and Hawaii during 2009 and return 15 starters from that team. UNLV has a new head coach and returns only 5 starters on D against the Badgers offense that caught fire in the final half of last season. At fewer than 3 TDs, this is a good price for Wisconsin against a team that was outscored by nearly 12 points per game last year playing in the Mountain West.

No. 46 Missouri (4-8 ATS, 8-5 SU) vs. No. 109 Illinois (4-7 ATS, 3-9 SU)

At St. Louis

Line: Missouri -11 ½

The Pick: Tigers

Missouri coverage

Illinois coverage

Mizzou beat Illinois 37-9 in this game last season, and the Tigers weren’t all that great. The Illini return just 8 starters from its 2009 grease fire, 3 on offense, and have already lost two projected starters on defense during the preseason (one to injury and another to dismissal). Vegas was way off on Illinois throughout 2009. The Illini lost by more than 9 points per game, twice their average spread of +4.5. Missouri returns 15 starters, 8 on offense, including QB Blaine Gabbert. Starting RB and leading returning rusher Derrick Washington was suspended indefinitely after a sexual assault charge. Washington was set to split carries anyway, so I still like Mizzou to cover.

No. 120 Memphis (2-9 ATS, 2-10 SU) at No. 72 Miss. State (6-5 ATS, 5-7 SU)

Line: MSU -21

The Pick: Miss. State

Memphis coverage

MSU coverage

Neither team returns much from 2009 with 9 starters each, but Moo U’s SEC talent should be enough to run away with this one. Memphis has a new coach and just 3 returning starters from a defense that ranked No. 110 in points allowed in 2009. Mississippi State returns 4 offensive linemen from a rushing attack that ranked ninth nationally at 227 yards per game. Memphis is trying to implement a pro-style passing attack, which plays to the strength of State’s defense and its returning safeties who combined for 10 interceptions in 2009.

No. 96 North Texas (5-7 ATS, 2-10 SU) at No. 34 Clemson (8-5 ATS, 9-5 SU)

Line: Clemson -23

The Pick: Clemson

North Texas coverage

Clemson coverage

There wasn’t a lot of mean in the Mean Green in 2009. UNT allowed more than 35 points per game and was -14 in turnover margin. Clemson returns QB Kyle Parker and 4 of 5 on its offensive line. The Tigers were 4-2 as a home favorite in 2009 and should roll in this one. The Clemson defense returns 7 starters, including 3 of 4 on its defensive line and safety DeAndre McDaniel, who had 8 interceptions in 2009.

No. 62 Arizona (6-6 ATS, 8-5 SU) at No. 99 Toledo (5-7 ATS, 5-7 SU)

Friday, Sept. 3

Line: Arizona -14 ½

The Pick: Arizona

Arizona coverage

Toledo coverage

Arizona crapped the bed in its bowl game, falling 33-0 to Nebraska and its stingy defense. The Wildcats return 7 starters on offense, including junior QB Nick Foles, after averaging almost 30 points per game in 2009. Toledo is a perfect feel-good patsy to start the season as ‘Zona coach Mike Stoops attempts to extend his recruiting reach into the Ohio heartland. Toledo had 5 losses by more than this spread in 2009, and was outscored by an average of more than 10 points per game while playing in the weak MAC. Wildcats by at least 20 in this one.

Whisky dick

No. 70 Cincinnati (5-6 ATS, 12-1 SU) at No. 39 Fresno State (6-5-1 ATS, 8-5 SU)

Line: Fresno State -2 ½

The Pick: Fresno State

Cincinnati coverage

Fresno State coverage

This game has rightly moved from Cincy at -2 ½ to Fresno at -2 ½. A five-point swing in the spread indicates Vegas was way off on this one, and they were. The Bulldogs lose NFL draft pick Ryan Matthews at RB, but return 15 starters overall and their QB for the season opener against a team that’s lost its coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame and QB Tony Pike to graduation. The Bearcats do return virtually their entire offensive line, and QB Zach Collaros started four games and played well in relief of Pike during 2009. But Cincy also returns only 3 of its front 7 from a defense that ranked No. 67 in total during 2009. The Bearcats will go down in this one by at least a field goal.

All but two games are picked here as there is still no line posted for the Texas Bowl Dec. 31 between Navy and Missouri or the DC Bowl on Dec. 29 between Temple and UCLA. I’ll add those picks when the lines are posted.

After picking 32 games and writing more than 7,500 words, I don’t have any particularly clever theme for the photo decorations for the picks. Just a bunch of hot chicks. Enjoy the read and stay up to date on what’s happening with every team by checking the links to each school’s hometown newspaper. TSR is 65-48-1 (57 percent) to date on NCAA football.

Elisha here is the safest pic sprinkled throughout. NSFW warning duly issued.

New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, Dec. 19

No. 18 Wyoming (8-3 ATS, 6-6 SU) vs. No. 66 Fresno State (6-4-1 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Fresno State –10 ½

Total: 55

The pick: Bulldogs

Wyoming coverage

Fresno State coverage

Wyoming has been a feisty team this year, but the Cowboys lost big to big offenses (52-0 to BYU, 45-10 to TCU), and Fresno State brings the nation’s No. 19 offense to the game led by running back Ryan Matthews. Matthews leads the NCAA in rushing at 151 yards per game and Wyoming allows 170 (No. 91 in NCAA).

Fresno’s defense isn’t very good at all, allowing nearly 28 points per game, but the Cowboys’ offense is ranked No. 111 in scoring at 17 points per game and averages less than 300 yards per game.

There is also an X-factor of rumblings about Fresno coach Pat Hill’s job security leading into this game. Hill is a players’ coach and there will be a rallying effect around the Bulldogs camp to pull off a big win in this game.

UPDATED: Fresno State will extend Hill’s contract beyond next season. Details will be worked out after the holidays. This is only good news for the Bulldogs’ chances with no distractions.

Fresno State 31, Wyoming 14

Click below for the rest of the picks (and more Elisha)

St. Petersburg Bowl, Dec. 19

No. 2 Central Florida (8-2-1 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 21 Rutgers (5-5 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Rutgers –2 ½

Total: 44 ½

The pick: UCF

UCF coverage

Rutgers coverage

Central Florida has a number of factors working for it in this game. For one, the game takes place during Rutgers’ final exam period while UCF completes its semester on Dec. 14 and will have much more focused practice time leading in, especially with the game near home in St. Pete.

The short turnaround for Rutgers also means they could be without their top playmaker, receiver Tim Brown, who leads the team with 51 catches, 8 TDs and 1,051 yards. Brown has a bad left ankle sprain and will be limited if he does play.

UPDATED: Brown’s status is still uncertain, but it is sure that he won’t be 100 percent in this game. The injury against West Virginia was the second time he sprained the ankle in his final three games.

UCF has the advantage at quarterback with senior Brett Hodges, who finished the year on a tear in his last four games with 1,047 yards, 7 TDs and 4 INTs on 87 of 136 passing (64%) starting with 2 fourth-quarter TD drives in a comeback 21-20 win over Marshall. In UCF’s last three games, the Knights averaged 40 points per game and RB Brynn Harvey had 120 yards or more in each. Four UCF receivers have at least 23 receptions and three have more than 32.

Rutgers has freshman Tom Savage, who has hit just 52% of his passes (135 of 258) and has been harassed all season. The Scarlet Knights are No. 112 in the nation in sacks allowed while UCF is ranked No. 5 in sacks made at 3.2 per game.

UCF defensive lineman Bruce Miller has been a beast and will be in Savage’s face plenty. Miller has 12 sacks, 7 QB hurries and 16 ½ tackles for loss. The Black Knights are also No. 4 in the nation in rush defense, allowing 82 per game. Rutgers’ wins this year came against teams who were a combined 36-57.

UCF 24, Rutgers 21

New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 20

No. 3 Middle Tennessee State (9-3 ATS, 9-3 SU) vs. No. 43 Southern Miss (6-4-1 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: Southern Miss –3

Total: 58

The pick: Blue Raiders

MTSU coverage

So. Miss coverage

This game pits the two hottest teams in the country ATS. The Blue Raiders enter the game 6-0 ATS and SU in the final half of the season while Southern Miss went a near-identical 5-0-1 (4-2 SU). MTSU’s offense under Tony Franklin (fired mid-season at Auburn last year after his spread attack didn’t take hold), hit a stride in the last six games averaging 41.6 points per game.

Blue Raiders QB Dwight Dasher averages nearly 300 yards in total offense per game (80 rushing, 220 passing) and will present big problems for the Eagles, who are No. 77 in the nation in total defense.

MTSU has held its opponents to 19.1 points during its current 6-game win streak. In one game against a dual threat QB this year, Southern Miss lost 30-17 to UAB and quarterback Joe Webb, who passed and ran for a TD, getting 138 yards rushing.

Southern Miss QB Martevious Young has been incredibly efficient in just seven games as starter. He’s 116 of 199 (58%) with 1,598 yards and 13 TDs against just 2 INTs. Middle Tennessee has the NCAA’s No. 20 pass efficiency defense and will be focused on stopping 6-6 WR DeAndre Brown (43 catches, 720 yards, 7 TDs), but five other receivers have caught at least 23 passes in the Eagles wide open attack.

Excluding their own, the Sun Belt had four of the nation’s top 50 passing attacks and Middle Tennessee went 3-1 SU and ATS versus those opponents with their lone loss at Troy and its No. 4 ranked attack. The Blue Raiders are just better enough on offense and defense to pull their first ever bowl victory.

Middle Tennessee 34, Southern Miss 28

Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22

No. 64 BYU (5-7 ATS, 10-2 SU) vs. No. 9 Oregon State (7-4 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Oregon State –1 ½

Total: 60 ½

The pick: Beavers

BYU coverage

Beavers coverage

This is the fifth straight trip to the Sin City Bowl for the Mormons from BYU. The Cougars have gone 2-2 against the Pac-10 in this matchup, losing 31-21 last year to Arizona. As long as Oregon State shows up for this game, the Beavers should win handily.

Coach Mike Riley is 5-0 in bowls at Oregon State and is 8-0 all time as a head or assistant coach in bowls. He’s also managed a distraction-filled Las Vegas trip before. Oregon State showed no lack of focus in a 55-14 win against New Mexico in the Vegas Bowl in 2003. BYU has been careless with the ball this season (2 or more TOs in six games, 3 or more in three games) while the Beavers finished the year +5 in TO margin.

After opening the year with a 14-13 win against OU, the Cougars were whipped by similar competition in their next two chances, both at home (54-28 to Florida State, 38-7 to TCU). This game should have plenty of points with the Beavers coming out on top.

Oregon State 38, BYU 24

Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, Dec. 23

No. 73 Utah (5-7 ATS, 9-3 SU) vs. No. 95 Cal (5-6 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Cal –3

Total: 52 ½

The pick: Bears

Utah coverage

Cal coverage

Outside of their infamous Holiday Bowl meltdown against Texas Tech following a BCS snub in 2004, the Bears are 5-1 in bowl games under Jeff Tedford. Utah is on an 8-game bowl winning streak.

Cal may not have stud RB Jahvid Best for this game as he considers a pro career in light of persistent back pain following his scary fall a month ago on a high-flying touchdown plunge. Sophomore RB Shane Vereen filled in nicely, rushing for 444 yards and 4 TDs in three games in relief of Best.

The Bears did go 2-1 ATS and SU without him to close the season, but laid a huge turd against Washington in the season finale (lost 42-10). Although their last two wins were respectable against a hot Stanford team on the road in the Big Game and against Pac-10 runner-up Arizona, Cal laid a number of turds this year, losing 52-3 at Oregon, 30-3 vs. USC and 31-14 to Oregon State.

Utah, though, is an opponent they should beat, especially with the advantage at quarterback.

Cal junior Kevin Riley passed for 2,636 yards with 17 TDs versus 6 INTs this season, hitting at least one scoring pass in each of his last seven games.

The Utes went to freshman Jordan Lynn at QB in their final four games after he led a comeback win against Wyoming, covering 3 of 4 with two wins by 31 points against lightweights New Mexico and San Diego State and losses to TCU (55-28) and BYU (26-23 in OT). Lynn completed 37 of 73 passes in those two losses with one TD and two INTs.

In their biggest nonconference matchup, Utah lost 31-24 at Oregon. Cal crushed its nonconference opponents, beating Minnesota 35-21, Maryland 52-13 and Eastern Washington 59-7.

Cal 31, Utah 20

Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24

No. 49 SMU (6-5 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 70 Nevada (7-5 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Nevada –14

Total: 73 ½

The pick: SMU

SMU coverage

Nevada coverage

This could be the highest scoring of any bowl game. Nevada cannot stop the pass, and SMU cannot stop the run. The Wolfpack is No. 114 in pass defense (allow 284 per game), SMU is No. 88 in rushing defense (170 allowed), No. 92 in total defense allowing 404 yards per game.

Nevada has the No. 1 rushing attack (362 per game), SMU has the No. 28 passing offense (267 per game). The Mustangs, making their first bowl appearance since receiving the NCAA death penalty, went from 1-11 to 7-5 under second-year coach June Jones.

UPDATED: Nevada will be down one of its NCAA-record 1,000 yard rushers for the game. Senior Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, 9 TDs) required surgery for a broken toe and is out. Redshirt freshman Mike Bell (19-201, 5 TDs) and sophomore Lampford Mark (44-286, 3 TDs) will fill in.

Jones should enjoy the return to Hawaii, where was head coach for nearly a decade, and he’s plenty familiar with Nevada on offense and defense after facing the Wolfpack annually in the WAC. He won his final two meetings against Nevada coach Chris Ault before leaving for Dallas.

Although it had the most success in a quarter century this season, SMU wasn’t exactly a world-beater with its open attack, winning narrowly against C-USA doormats Rice (31-28) and Tulane (26-21). They also beat eventual C-USA champ East Carolina 28-21 at home early in the season. Nevada wins this game, but SMU keeps it within the two TDs.

Nevada 48, SMU 35

Little Caeser’s Bowl, Detroit, Dec. 26

No. 7 Ohio (8-4 ATS, 9-4 SU) vs. No. 54 Marshall (6-5 ATS, 6-6 SU)

Opening Line: Ohio –2

Total: 49 ½

The pick: Bobcats

Ohio coverage

Marshall coverage

Bowl games are all about motivation, and this is the biggest mismatch on the board. Ohio has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since the 1960s and Marshall will be coached by interim Rick Minter after Mark Snyder was fired following the regular season.

Minter was the head coach at Cincinnati for a number of years and will no doubt be auditioning for the job, but Ohio coach Frank Solich has built a pretty nice Bobcat program with a defense ranked No. 6 in turnover margin (+9) and No. 32 in points allowed (21 per game) that held high-powered Central Michigan more than two TDs under its season scoring average in the MAC title game.

The Bobcats lost that game 20-10 but will have more success on their second trip to Detroit’s Ford Field moving the ball against Marshall and its No. 80-ranked defense.

Ohio 24, Marshall 10

Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte, Dec. 26

No. 62 North Carolina (5-5 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 40 Pittsburgh (6-5 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Opening Line: Panthers –3

Total: 44 ½

The pick: Pitt

UNC coverage

Pitt coverage

This game matches a pair of outstanding defenses between like-minded coaches Butch Davis and Dave Wannestet. Pitt is ranked No. 26 in total defense, No. 1 in sacks per game (3.8) and UNC is No. 6 in yards allowed (267 per game).

The Tar Heels’ strength against the run (92 allowed per game) will be the key to the game against Pitt’s No. 29 rushing offense (184 per game).

The game is in effect a home game in Charlotte for UNC, but Pitt has the overall edge in this game due to the fact it is the only of the two who’s shown any semblance of coherence putting points on the board.

The Panthers’ are ranked No. 45 in total offense but No. 16 in scoring offense at 33 points per game. If the Bill Stull who played the first 10 games with Pitt going 9-1 shows up, the Panthers will win this game.

Stull, ranked No. 11 in efficiency, scuffled down the stretch with 3 TDs to 4 INTs in their two season-ending losses after throwing 18 TDs versus 4 picks in his first 10 games.

The Tar Heels are No. 107 in total offense and No. 81 in scoring offense at 24 per game. Junior QB TJ Yates, ranked No. 97 in efficiency, has been a drive killer with 14 INTs to 12 TDs this season and he has only two games with more than 200 yards passing.

Pitt 20, UNC 13

Emerald Bowl, San Francisco, Dec. 26

No. 69 Boston College (6-5 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 119 USC (3-9 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: USC –9

Total: 44

The pick: Eagles

BC coverage

USC coverage

USC is saying all the right things about this bowl game following its 2-3 SU finish to the regular season, but consider me unconvinced. If there was ever a game to show the Trojans had regained their focus, it was following the bye week before the UCLA game. The USC offense was pathetic in that game despite the final 28-7 score that included a poke-in-the-eye TD with 44 seconds left when Bruins coach Rick Neuheisal was calling timeouts while USC was kneeling on the ball. The game was 7-0 in the fourth, with USC’s only points on a pick-6 and its second TD coming off a short field following another INT.

Rather than build on the win, USC promptly lost 21-17 to Arizona at home to end the regular season. USC looks like it is going through the motions, both its players and coaching staff. It isn’t as though Pete Carroll’s job security is at stake here and he’s already talking about next year.

This game will be a Super Bowl for Boston College with the clear motivation advantage. The Eagles’ offense, like USC’s, has struggled to put points on the board and has converted less than 30 percent of its third-down attempts this season. The BC defense has been pretty stout, ranking No. 18 in scoring D, No. 15 in rush D (allows 104 per game) and No. 23 in total defense. The ACC has five teams ranked in the top 30 passing offenses and BC went 3-0 SU against those it faced.

USC has gone from a top 15 offense and the No. 1 defense last year to middle-of-the-pack in both, ranked No. 58 in total offense and No. 42 in total defense, allowing 11 more points per game this year than last.

USC 21, Boston College 20

Music City Bowl, Nashville, Dec. 27

No. 33 Kentucky (6-5 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 50 Clemson (7-5 ATS, 8-5 SU)

Opening Line: Clemson –7

Total: 52 ½

The pick: Kentucky

Kentucky coverage

Clemson coverage

The Music City Bowl goes to the team that’s happier to be there, and even though this is Kentucky’s third trip to Nashville in the last four years, it is the Wildcats, who went 4-1 SU and ATS down the stretch. Kentucky has gone 3-0 SU in the last three seasons in bowls under Rich Brooks, going 2-0 in the Music City including a 28-20 win over Clemson in 2006.

Nashville is a graveyard for teams that finish poorly or drop their conference title game and are upset or don’t respect the bowl assignment. Arkansas played in the SEC title game in 2002 but was smoked by Minnesota in the game after pouting about the trip.

Boston College lost the ACC title game last year and fell 16-14 to Vanderbilt in Nashville, the Commodores’ first bowl win in 53 years.

Clemson lost the ACC title game this year to Georgia Tech 39-34, making it two consecutive SU losses and three straight ATS.

Primo programs Alabama (0-2), Georgia, Florida State and Wisconsin are a combined 0-5 SU in the Music City Bowl.

Only Auburn, which followed a season-ending win against Alabama in 2003 with a 28-14 win against a Badgers team that lost three of its last four heading into the bowl, qualifies as an elite program that’s won this game in the last 10 years. (Virginia Tech beat Alabama in the very first game in 1998).

Clemson isn’t on those teams’ level, but the Tigers think they are. UK has no such illusions.

Clemson hasn’t traveled well this season, going 1-2 as a road favorite. UK went 5-0 away from Lexington, 3-0 as a road dog.

Kentucky 24, Clemson 21

Independence Bowl, Shreveport, Dec. 28

No. 48 Texas A&M (7-5 ATS, 6-6 SU) vs. No. 113 Georgia (4-7 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: UGA –7

Total: 64

The pick: Aggies

A&M coverage

UGA coverage

Gotta go with A&M catching these points against the country’s No. 70 scoring defense (allow 26.4 points per game) ranked No. 119 in TO margin (-16). Georgia is a program in some turmoil, with coach Mark Richt changing defensive coordinators and former players publicly speculating that the inmates are running the asylum in Athens.

Georgia was 2-5 ATS as a favorite this year, A&M was 3-2 as an underdog, including their 49-39 shootout loss to Texas on Thanksgiving to close their season.

This is definitely a lower-tier destination (usually reserved for a middle-pack SEC West finisher) for a team like Georgia accustomed to BCS and post-Jan. 1 bowl game pampering. Richt is 6-0 in Jan. 1 or later bowl games, 1-1 before the New Year. Texas A&M is happier to be there and will cover if not win SU.

Texas A&M 33, Georgia 28

Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, Dec. 29

No. 46 Wisconsin (5-6 ATS, 9-3 SU) vs. No. 47 Miami (6-5 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Opening Line: Miami –2 ½

Total: 57 ½

The pick: The U

Wisconsin coverage

Miami coverage

Wisconsin went 0-3 against bowl eligible teams and 4-0 against losers down the stretch. Miami was a bit similar, with 2 of its losses in its last 6 against winning teams, losing in OT to Clemson 40-37 and at North Carolina 33-24. The Canes, who lost 24-17 to Cal last year in their first bowl under Randy Shannon, closed the season with wins over Duke and bowl-eligible South Florida by a combined 65-26.

Miami was outstanding in the nonconference part of its schedule, going 3-0 ATS and SU against bowl-eligible Oklahoma (21-10), Central Florida (27-7) and South Florida (31-10). Wisconsin’s NC schedule included wins but not covers against Northern Illinois (28-20) and Fresno State (34-31, OT).

Wisconsin went 8-3 in bowls under Barry Alvarez, his successor Bret Bielema hasn’t been as good at 1-2 with losses in his last two against Tennessee (21-17, 2007 Outback) and 42-13 last year to Florida State in this same Champs Sports Bowl.

The Big 10 doesn’t have anyone at quarterback similar to Miami’s Jacory Harris, who passed for 3,164 yards and 23 TDs this season. Wisconsin has only one player with more than 2 INTs this season, DB Chris Maragos, and as long has Harris can avoid the costly picks (he had 8 in 3 losses, 9 in 9 wins), the Canes have the talent and the motivation advantage in this game.

Miami 28, Wisconsin 24

Humanitarian Bowl, Boise, Dec. 30

No. 20 Bowling Green (7-5 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 39 Idaho (7-5 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: Pick ‘em

Total: 68

The pick: Falcons

Bowling Green coverage

Idaho coverage

If ever there was a pick ‘em, this is it. I’ll take Bowling Green here to win a high-scoring affair. The Vandals started the year on fire, going 6-1 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS before getting blown out 70-45 at Nevada.

Horrible defense and turnover problems doomed Idaho after that, finishing the year –9 in TO margin (BG is +5), and quarterback Nathan Enderle was plagued by shoulder problems, missing two games and leaving the season-ending 52-49 home loss to Utah State.

It’s a home game for Idaho, but friendly confines haven’t necessarily translated to wins. Idaho was 3-3 ATS at home this year while BG went 4-2 ATS on the road.

Early on when they had it rolling, Idaho went to Bowling Green’s fellow MAC member Northern Illinois and routed the Huskies, building a 34-13 lead and holding on for a 34-31 win.

While Idaho finished the year on a 5-game losing streak ATS allowing an average of 50 points per game in that span, Bowling Green finished the season on a three-game winning streak ATS against several weak sisters of the MAC to pay me nicely.

Bowling Green has the NCAA’s No. 8 passing attack (310 yards per game) and Idaho is No. 114 in pass defense (allowing 269 yards per game). Idaho also has a potent passing offense ranked No. 11 (290 per game), but Bowling Green is No. 34 in passing yards allowed at just more than 200 per game.

The Falcons scored 30 or more points in 7 of their final 8 games, going 6-2 SU and ATS. This is Idaho’s first bowl game since 1998. Bowling Green has been to three bowls this decade, going 2-1 with wins in 2003 over Northwestern, in 2004 over Memphis and a 2008 loss to Tulsa.

Bowling Green 45, Idaho 38

Holiday Bowl, San Diego, Dec. 30

No. 34 Nebraska (8-5 ATS, 9-4 SU) vs. No. 52 Arizona (6-5 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: Arizona –1

Total: 40

The pick: Huskers

Nebraska coverage

Arizona coverage

Unlike some season-ending losses, Nebraska’s narrow loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game should inspire them rather than spoil their preparations, especially still with a chance for a 10-win season.

The Huskers were a perfect 3-0 as an underdog this season and the trend continues here against Arizona, which went 3-3 as a favorite this season and 0-2 as a road favorite. Texas certainly has a more dynamic offense than Arizona, which is barely in the top third of DI teams at No. 40 in total and No. 41 in scoring, and the Huskers played a near-perfect game against the ‘Horns.

Nebraska’s anemic offense is their weak link, but they will have enough success against a Pac-10 defense to end their season on a high note.

Nebraska 20, Arizona 10

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Dec. 31

No. 22 Air Force (6-4-1 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 25 Houston (6-5-1 ATS, 10-3 SU)

Opening Line: Houston –5

Total: 62

The pick: Air Force

Air Force coverage

Houston coverage

This is an intriguing matchup between the nation’s No. 1 passing offense and the No. 1 passing defense. These opponents are also quite familiar with each other, having played twice during the 2008 season, with Air Force defeating Houston 31-28 in the regular season and falling 34-28 to the Cougars in this same Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons are +11 in turnover margin and their starting cornerback duo combined for 7 picks this season. Houston has shown a definite tendency to overlook opponents that appear inferior on paper, losing at UTEP (58-41) and at Central Florida (37-32) this season and needing a miracle finish (TD, onside kick, FG) in the final 30 seconds to defeat Tulsa 46-45.

It happened again in the C-USA title game when Houston QB Case Keenum threw several careless passes and was intercepted three times in the Cougars 38-32 loss to East Carolina.

Air Force held TCU to a near season-low of scoring in a 20-17 loss (TCU beat Clemson 14-10 in a downpour) and held both the Horned Frogs and Utah to less than 200 yards passing.

The Falcons’ triple option offense remains effective and quarterback Tim Jefferson should be healthy for the game. Air Force averages 273 yards on the ground. Houston brings in the No. 112 rushing defense allowing 213 per game and the No. 88 scoring defense allowing nearly 29 per. Houston is ranked No. 108 in total defense giving up 443 yards per game. The Cougars win, but Air Force keeps it close.

Houston 34, Air Force 31

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Dec. 31

No. 37 Stanford (7-5 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 83 Oklahoma (4-6-1 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: OU –9 ½

Total: 56 ½

The pick: Sooners

Stanford coverage

Oklahoma coverage

Stanford freshman QB Andrew Luck had surgery on a broken finger on his throwing hand and his status is doubtful for this game. He is projected to be out of action at least 2-3 weeks, and even if he can make it back, he’ll be cutting it close and coming in cold against the usually tough Oklahoma defense.

The alternative is senior Tavita Pritchard, who lost his job to Luck after starting 19 games in the last two seasons. Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said Pritchard is likely to start the game after throwing only 3 passes for 1 net yard all season. For his career, Pritchard has 15 TDs versus 22 interceptions, completing 244 of 448 passes (54%) for 2,747 yards (6.1 per attempt).

That means an even tougher load to shoulder for Toby Gearhart against a team that shut out a potent Oklahoma State offense (30 ppg) to close the season, 27-0.

If Stanford wins this game, they’ll have accomplished an unlikely feat of defeating USC, Notre Dame and OU with their umpteen national titles in the same season. It’s not happening.

OU will score just fine against the Cardinal’s No. 85 defense and its No. 7 rush defense (88 per game) will keep Gearhart in check.

Oklahoma 30, Stanford 13

Insight Bowl, Tempe, Dec. 31

No. 29 Iowa State (7-4 ATS, 6-6 SU) vs. No. 82 Minnesota (5-6 ATS, 6-6 SU)

Opening Line: Minnesota –3

Total: 48 ½

The pick: Iowa State

Iowa State coverage

Minnesota coverage

In a game between 6-6 teams, I’m going with the hotter team coming in, and that’s Iowa State. The Golden Gophers dropped four of their last five games to back into this bowl while the Cyclones went 3-3 SU and covered 5 of their final 7 games.

Neither team does anything particularly well, but Minnesota is especially pathetic on offense, ranking No. 113 with less than 300 yards per game. Not surprisingly, the only thing the Gophers are ranked among the top 20 nationally is in net punting.

Minnesota is slightly better on defense, but the Gophers negate that by turning it over with regularity at –5 in TO margin compared to Iowa State’s +6.

Iowa State does have a decent running game, ranked No. 36 at 177 yards per game. Cyclones win this pillow fight.

Iowa State 24, Minnesota 17

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, Dec. 31

No. 35 Tennessee (7-5 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 28 Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Opening Line: VT –4 ½

Total: 49 ½

The pick: Hokies

Vols coverage

Hokies coverage

The closest thing to a signature win for Lame Kiffin this year was a 45-19 beatdown of underachieving Georgia, the Vols’ only win (1-3) against a team that finished .500 or better in BCS conference play. Frank Beamer will be the bully in this one.

The Hokies were 5-3 SU against bowl eligible teams with wins including Miami and Nebraska with losses to SEC Champ Alabama and ACC champ Georgia Tech.

Vols quarterback Jonathan Crompton was a 50-percent passer against good defensive teams, throwing for 93 yards in each game against UCLA and Florida with 5 combined picks. He had 142 yards against South Carolina, 265 against Alabama and 176 versus Ole Miss.

Of those, Tennessee won only the South Carolina game, and that was largely thanks to four Gamecock turnovers. Virginia Tech is ranked No. 6 in pass defense and the Hokies won their last four games by 13, 27, 28 and 29 points.

Tech can really move it on the ground, ranking No. 16 in the NCAA at 206 per game, and Tennessee is No. 58 nationally at stopping the rush allowing 143 yards per game. Ryan Williams runs wild and the Hokies put the clamps down on Tennessee’s offense.

Virginia Tech 35, Tennessee 17

Outback Bowl, Tampa, Jan. 1

No. 45 Northwestern (5-6 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 56 Auburn (6-5 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: Auburn –8

Total: 54 ½

The pick: Wildcats

N’Western coverage

Auburn coverage

This is too many points for an Auburn team that lost five of its final six (2-4 ATS) versus DI competition against a team that went 3-0 SU and ATS down the stretch including upsets of previously undefeated Iowa and against Wisconsin.

Northwestern has crafted a nice passing attack led by senior QB Mike Kafka averaging 266 yards per game. Kafka had 5 games with more than 300 yards passing, scoring 19 TDs on 12 throws and 7 runs. He also comes into the game having not thrown an interception in four games.

Auburn still has gaudy numbers offensively, ranked No. 21 in scoring (33 per game), but was held to 24 or fewer in five of its final six. Its D also gave up more than its 26-point average in four of those.

Auburn relies heavily on the run, ranking No. 13 at 214 yards per game. That matches up against the Wildcats’ strength. They rank No. 36 in rush defense allowing 123 yards per game.

The SEC won 5 of the first 7 matchups against the Big 10 in this bowl starting in 1996. The Big 10 has won 4 of the last 7, trailing the series 8-6 overall.

Auburn 31, Northwestern 28

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Jan. 1

No. 93 Florida State (3-8 ATS, 6-6 SU) vs. No. 77 West Virginia (5-6 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Opening Line: WVA –3

Total: 60 ½

The pick: Mountaineers

FSU coverage

WVA coverage

The X-factor in this one is Bobby Bowden’s send-off as coach of Florida State. Somehow the 6-6 Seminoles get to play a Jan. 1 bowl game against a 9-3 West Virginia. Selection committee types might have thought they were doing Bowden a favor by not sending him to a total crap bowl, but this isn’t exactly the kind of game the ‘Noles can easily send him out on a good note either.

They can, however, use every extra practice they can get with freshman QB EJ Manuel making just his fourth start for injured starter Christian Ponder.

West Virginia finished hot, with three straight wins ATS (2-1 SU). Florida State went 2-6 SU versus bowl-eligible teams, the last of those wins coming way back Oct. 27 against North Carolina, 30-27, with Ponder at the helm.

The Mountaineers won the Backyard Brawl 19-16 over Pitt and held Cincy’s high-powered offense to just 24 points on the road, a season-low in points for the Bearcats and 16 under their scoring average. Pitt’s total was less than half of its season average.

WVA was No. 34 in total defense (330 yards per game) and No. 24 in scoring defense (allowing 20.7 per game). Manuel has thrown for 628 yards in three games with six INTs versus just two TDs.

West Virginia 27, Florida State 13

Capital One Bowl, Orlando, Jan. 1

No. 68 LSU (5-6-1 ATS, 9-3 SU) vs. No. 79 Penn State (5-6 ATS, 10-2 SU)

Opening Line: Penn State –2 ½

Total: 44

The pick: LSU

LSU coverage

Penn State coverage

Les Miles is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU and the Tigers bring the usual SEC speed advantage to the game. Neither offense is particularly potent and this should be a defensive struggle with LSU coming out on top.

Against the top two defenses it faced this season, Ohio State and Iowa, the Nittany Lions scored a meager 17 points combined in two losses. During this decade, Joe Pa is 3-2 in bowl games and 1-1 against the SEC with a 20-10 win against Tennessee in the 2006 Outback Bowl and a 13-9 loss to Auburn in the 2002 Capital One Bowl.

LSU 20, Penn State 7

Rose Bowl, Jan. 1

No. 12 Ohio State (9-3 ATS, 10-2 SU) vs. No. 31 Oregon (7-5 ATS, 10-2 SU)

Opening Line: Oregon –3 ½

Total: 51 ½

The pick: Buckeyes

OSU coverage

Oregon coverage

You have to respect what Ohio State did ATS this season. The Buckeyes were, on average, a 15-point favorite every week and yet still posted a 9-3 record versus the number thanks to a lights-out D that held opponents to 12.1 per game. OSU was also 2-0 as an underdog.

Only Alabama was close among BCS competition, going 8-4 ATS as a 14.3-point favorite on average (TCU and Boise routinely hammered 20+ point spreads).

I’m taking the Buckeyes to get off their BCS schnide — 0-3 SU last three including two blowouts in MNC game — against the Ducks, who are playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995.

For all its Big 10 success, this is Ohio State’s first Rose Bowl since 1997. Oregon falls into the just-happy-to-be-here camp; Ohio State is desperate for an out-of-conference BCS win.

Both teams love to run the ball (Oregon, No. 6 at 236 per game; Ohio State, No. 19, 198 per game). But only one has shown the routine ability to stop it.

The Buckeyes are No. 5 in total defense (262 yards per game) and rushing D (83 per game), not to mention +14 in turnover margin.

Ohio State’s D no doubt benefited from early leads to tee off on teams trying to come from behind. The Buckeyes’ outscored their opponents 181-56 in the first half, 109-36 in the second quarter. Oregon’s defense can be had, and if Jim Tressel can script a couple successful opening drives the Buckeyes will hold on for the win and cover.

Ohio State 34, Oregon 24

Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1

No. 36 Cincinnati (6-5 ATS, 12-0 SU) vs. No. 78 Florida (6-6 ATS, 12-1 SU)

Opening Line: Florida –10

Total: 57

The pick: Gators

Cincy coverage

Gators coverage

Florida already had the edge in this one, the Gators have another intangible now that Cincy coach Brian Kelly has left for the Notre Dame job. This is a good price for Florida, which was favored in every game this year by an average of 24 points.

The Gators won by an average of 20 per, and the Bearcats D is in big trouble against the Gators offense. Cincy gave up an average of 36.5 points each in its last four games, and Florida is far less likely to use its disappointing loss in the SEC Championship game as an excuse to dog it in this one like Alabama did in its BCS loss to Utah a year ago.

The Bearcats weren’t exactly expecting a heavy fan turnout even before Kelly left (one reason they weren’t shipped to the Fiesta against Boise or TCU) and this should be close to a home game for Florida.

The Gators’ D holds down Cincy and scores big to cover this one.

Florida 38, Cincinnati 24

International Bowl, Toronto, Jan. 2

No. 38 Northern Illinois (5-6 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 72 South Florida (4-6 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: South Florida –6

Total: 50

The pick: Bulls

NIU coverage

USF coverage

The Big East is 3-0 against the MAC in this game, including the last two in huge blowouts. Rutgers beat Ball State 52-30 in 2007 and UConn rolled Buffalo 38-20 in 2008. Both teams backed into this game with consecutive SU losses (NIU finishing 0-3 ATS), but USF covered its last time out in a 29-27 loss at UConn.

The game is inside a dome, so it should favor South Florida’s offense in ideal conditions and the cold weather should keep its players from finding too many distractions outside up in Toronto.

South Florida has the edge in talent and should stuff NIU’s running game that averages 202 yards per game. The Bulls held opponents to 137 yards rushing per game and ranked No. 31 in total defense (328 allowed per game). Stop the run, stop the Huskies, and the Bulls win comfortably.

South Florida 31, Northern Illinois 10

Papa John’s Bowl, Birmingham, Jan. 2

No. 4 UConn (8-2-1 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 41 South Carolina (7-4 ATS, 7-5 SU)

Opening Line: South Carolina –5

Total: 51 ½

The pick: Huskies

UConn coverage

Gamecocks coverage

The Huskies were, on average, a one-point underdog all season and yet posted a remarkable record ATS. This is the perfect spread for them to cover against an average South Carolina team that plays almost every game close.

South Carolina was 1-2 as a favorite this year, beating a cupcake and eeking out a two-point win against Kentucky (+10) and a four-point win against Vandy (+14).

UConn was 6-0 ATS as a dog and 6-0 ATS on the road. The Gamecocks’ D is stout at No. 15 in yards allowed (304), but its offense blows, ranked No. 96 in scoring (21.7) and No. 76 in yards (360 per game). UConn is No. 23 in scoring at 32 per game and No. 28 in sacks, collecting 2.5 per game.

South Carolina QB Steven Garcia has gotten plenty of pounding this year. The Gamecock offensive line is rated No. 104 in sacks allowed at 2.8 per game.

UConn 25, South Carolina 24

Cotton Bowl, Jerry World, Jan. 2

No. 103 Ole Miss (5-5 ATS, 8-4 SU) vs. No. 90 Oklahoma State (5-6 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Opening Line: Ole Miss –3

The pick: Cowboys

Ole Miss coverage

Cowboys coverage

OSU coach Mike Gundy is 2-1 in bowls with his first loss as a Cowboys player or coach last year by 42-31 to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl (he was 2-0 in bowl games as a quarterback at OSU alongside Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders).

Houston Nutt, who was an assistant coach at OSU when Gundy was a player, is 3-5 in bowl games (2-5 at Arkansas) and 2-1 in the Cotton Bowl including last year’s win over Texas Tech.

It took halfway through the season before Ole Miss made Dexter McCluster its bell cow and he rushed for nearly all of his 985 yards in the final six games.

McCluster will face an OSU defense ranked No. 6 against the run (allowing a mere 87 yards per game). The Cowboys will face a beastly Ole Miss D that gave up only 18 points per game, was No. 12 in sacks (2.8) and No. 10 in tackles-for-loss (7.6).

OSU did a good job protecting quarterback Zac Robinson this year ranking No. 5 in sacks allowed at less than 1 per game.

The X-factor here is Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead’s turnover tendencies. He threw 17 picks against 20 TDs this season, with 9 of those coming in losses to Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State. The Rebels were –12 in TO margin this season.

If Ole Miss has to throw the ball to win this game, Snead will press and make the decisive mistake that leads to an Oklahoma State victory.

Oklahoma State 21, Ole Miss 17

Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Jan. 2

No. 1 Arkansas (7-4 ATS, 7-5 SU) vs. No. 24 East Carolina (6-6 ATS, 9-4 SU)

Opening Line: Arkansas –7 ½

Total: 63 ½

The pick: Razorbacks

Hogs coverage

ECU coverage

Four Houston turnovers doomed the Cougars against East Carolina despite Case Keenum (3 INTs) passing for 550 yards against the Pirates’ No. 110 pass defense. Arkansas is +12 in TO margin and QB Ryan Mallett has thrown only 7 picks all season versus 29 TDs, averaging 285 yards passing per game to lead the SEC.

Vegas has consistently underestimated the Hogs all season. Arkansas beat the spread by an average of 7 ½ points per game this season, second in the country only to No. 2 Central Florida’s 8-point Margin vs. Spread Average.

Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino was 2-2 in bowl games at Louisville, with a 2006 Orange Bowl win and a loss in 2003 at the GMAC to 12-1 Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami Ohio. He’s won the Liberty before, beating Boise State 44-40 in 2004.

Arkansas won’t make the same careless mistakes Houston made and the Razorbacks live up to their TSR top ranking in this one.

Arkansas 41, East Carolina 24

Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Jan. 2

No. 106 Michigan State (4-6-1 ATS, 6-6 SU) vs. No. 32 Texas Tech (7-4 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Opening Line: TT –7

Total: 60 ½

The pick: Red Raiders

MSU coverage

Raiders coverage

The Spartans are in big trouble in this one. Not only have nine current and former players (including three starters) been charged in a frat party feud where it’s alleged Spartans donned ski masks and stormed a potluck throwing blows, Michigan State brings one of the nation’s worst pass defenses to the table against the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech is ranked No. 2 in passing offense (380 yards per game) and Michigan State is ranked No. 103 in passing yards allowed (251 per game). The Spartans also turn it over in bunches (-6 TO margin). Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS versus any number less than –7 and rolls to a commanding victory at the Alamo.

Texas Tech 45, Michigan State 21

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Jan. 4

No. 5 Boise State (8-4 ATS, 13-0 SU) vs. No. 14 TCU (8-3 ATS, 12-0 SU)

Opening Line: TCU –7

Total: 55

The pick: Horned Frogs

Boise coverage

TCU coverage

These two met in the Poinsettia Bowl last season, with TCU coming out on top 17-16. This game will also be lower scoring than people think, likely on Boise State’s side. The Horned Frogs’ D is just as stingy as a year ago when they held Boise 24 points under its scoring average, but they’ve added big play capability in their passing game that was missing.

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton was rated No. 4 in pass efficiency this year and doubled his TD passes (22) from last year while throwing only 5 picks for the second straight season. His counterpart, Kellen Moore, was spectacular as the nation’s top rated passer, with 39 TDs versus only 3 picks and 3,325 yards.

A few teams, Fresno State (51-34), Tulsa (28-21), Louisiana Tech (45-35) and Nevada (44-33), enjoyed some success scoring and moving the ball against Boise. No team had any such success against TCU, which blew out strong and weak opponents alike.

The most points it allowed all season was 28 while scoring 55 of its own against Utah, and that was after jumping out to a 35-7 lead.

TCU 31, Boise State 23

Orange Bowl, Jan. 5

No. 27 Iowa (7-4 ATS, 10-2 SU) vs. No. 8 Georgia Tech (8-4 ATS, 11-2 SU)

Opening Line: Ga. Tech –3 ½

Total: 51

The pick: Ramblin’ Wreck

Iowa coverage

GT coverage

Iowa is really lucky to be in this game, while Georgia Tech earned it. Iowa dodged bullets against Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Indiana during its undefeated start before finally getting upset 17-10 by Northwestern.

Led by backup QB James Vanderberg (filling in for injured Richard Stanzi), the Hawkeyes almost upset Ohio State in OT (L 27-24) with Vanderberg throwing 3 picks, but could only manage four field goals against Minnesota to close the season.

Iowa likely gets Stanzi back for this game, but the Ramblin’ Wreck has consistently been the better team all year and wins this one by at least a TD.

Georgia Tech 24, Iowa 13

GMAC Bowl, Mobile, Jan. 6

No. 63 Troy (8-4 ATS, 9-3 SU) vs. No. 15 Central Michigan (9-3 ATS, 11-2 SU)

Opening Line: CMU –4

Total: 63

The pick: Chippewas

Troy coverage

CMU coverage

This is a tough call for me after winning on both these teams all season. I’m going with the Chippewas thanks to an edge on defense. Troy beat up on the Sun Belt with its No. 4 rated air attack, but the Trojans gave up a lot of passing yards as well. Troy was No. 117 in pass defense, allowing 278 yards per game.

They do have a decent defensive front, ranking No. 26 in sacks (2.6 per game), but the mobile Dan LeFevour and a solid offensive line (1.1 sacks allowed, No. 19 in NCAA) should neutralize the pressure.

Troy was 1-2 as an underdog this year, Central Michigan was 7-2 as a favorite with their only losses while giving up 10 or more points.

The Chips ranked No. 36 in pass efficiency defense, No. 48 in yards allowed at 207. CMU’s pass D also saw a lot more action against teams trying to come from behind. The Chips’ D allowed just 6.5 yards per pass attempt and had an even 11 picks versus 11 TD passes allowed.

Central Michigan 38, Troy 28

Mythical National Championship Game, Rose Bowl, Jan. 7

No. 42 Texas (5-7-1 ATS, 13-0 SU) vs. No. 11 Alabama (8-4 ATS, 13-0 SU)

Opening Line: Alabama –5 ½

Total: 45

The pick: Crimson Tide

Texas coverage

Alabama coverage

Vegas set this line about dead perfect. There’s plenty of arguments on both sides. It’s tempting to take the 5 ½ for Texas, but the Big 12 title game exposed offensive problems the Longhorns largely concealed all season.

Alabama also has the coaching advantage. While Nick Saban’s national title at LSU in 2004 should be attributed to him, Mack Brown’s in 2005 should be credited with Vince Young, and the near-botching of the end-game management against Nebraska proved that. It’s doubtful you’d ever see Saban leaving a timeout on the table in that situation. Colt McCoy may be the all-time winningest NCAA quarterback, but he’s not VY.

Other than McCoy, Texas has one offensive weapon in Jordan Shipley (106 catches, 1,353 yards, 11 TDs), but no other receiver has more than 42 catches. Alabama has multiple levels of attack and Texas A&M showed the Longhorns can be scored upon.

No Tide receiver has more than 42 catches, but as a group they average 12.5 yards per catch for more than 2,300 yards. Alabama pounds the ball with Mark Ingram and kills the clock, averaging an SEC leading 33:30 in time of possession, a full seven minutes longer than their opponents. Texas is third in the Big 12 at right around 30 minutes per game.

A couple three-and-outs and a couple time-consuming drives and Texas could find themselves behind quick.

While Saban has worked with and praised Texas offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, the Longhorns have had since the OU game in October to find new ways to get to Shipley or involve other players in big games and haven’t.

Alabama should be able to devote two or more defenders to Shipley, single up on the rest and spy McCoy while bottling up a decidedly average running game.

Applewhite was Saban’s offensive coordinator in 2007 and the Tide ranked No. 75 in total offense. In the two years under Jim McElwain, the Tide has ascended to No. 35.

Texas is ranked No. 20 in total offense this season, but look at the Big 12. There are only three defenses ranked in the top 30 (the SEC has seven), and Texas scored 16 against No. 7 OU and 13 against No. 9 Nebraska. Everyone else is ranked lower than 33 and seven are lower than 47.

It wasn’t just against OU or Nebraska that Texas’ offense sputtered. They led Wyoming just 13-10 at half, trailed Colorado 14-10 at half and were ahead only 21-3 over Central Florida until hitting an 88-yard play to Shipley with 13 minutes to play. McCoy may dial up one of those against Bama, but it won’t be enough.

Alabama 21, Texas 13

MAC Championship Game (Ford Field, Detroit), Friday

No. 13 Central Michigan (9-2 ATS, 10-2 SU) vs. No. 11 Ohio (7-4 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Line: CMU –14

The pick: Chippewas

This line has ballooned from an open around 10.5 to the current two-TD margin. I still like the Chips to win by this margin in a home-state sendoff to the MAC’s all-time leader in total offense, CMU quarterback Dan LeFevour. Central Michigan’s defense gave up a few more points than their average last week against Northern Illinois (won 45-31), but they kept the Wolves at bay enough for the Chips’ high-powered offense to keep piling up points. Ohio took advantage of several Temple turnovers to end the Owls’ 9-game winning streak last week 35-17; I don’t expect the Chips to be as generous and to win this game handily.

Big 12 Championship Game (Jerry World)

No. 37 Texas (5-6-1 ATS, 12-0 SU) vs. No. 44 Nebraska (7-5 ATS, 9-3 SU)

Line: Texas –14

The pick: Longhorns

Sure, Texas gave up 39 points to Texas A&M last week, but the Aggies have big-play capability, something the Huskers sorely lack. The Cornholes are ranked No. 92 in total offense, No. 72 in scoring offense and Texas is still ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 9 in scoring defense even after last week. Texas’ offense is too good and Nebraska’s offense is too ineffective for the Blackshirts to keep this one close, especially with a BCS title game berth on the line for Texas.

Conference USA Championship Game (at East Carolina)

No. 12 Houston (6-4-1 ATS, 10-2 SU) vs. No. 36 East Carolina (5-6 ATS, 8-4 SU)

Line: Houston –3

The pick: Cougars

East Carolina has won three straight to reach the C-USA title game, but the host team Pirates just don’t have the offensive weapons to stick with Houston.

ECU is ranked No. 52 in passing defense and No. 68 in total defense, which figures to give the edge to Houston and its No. 1 ranked passing attack led by Case Keenum. ECU eeked past Southern Miss 25-20 last week while Houston was hanging 73 on Rice. The Cougars take the C-USA title in handy fashion.

WAC 8th Place Champion of the World Game (Ruston, La.)

No. 113 San Jose State (1-8-1 ATS, 2-9 SU) at No. 27 Louisiana Tech (6-4 ATS, 3-8 SU)

Line: La. Tech –24

The pick: Techsters

This line has swelled from 17.5 to 24, so that should tell you something. I bought early at 18.5 but you’re still good at this line. San Jose State stinks every which way and will be getting creamed by La. Tech this weekend. The Techsters have lost four straight, but by respectable margins of 30-28 at Fresno State, 26-14 to LSU, 45-35 to Boise State and 35-34 at Idaho, all covers. La. Tech has averaged 38 points per game at home this year and is 3-0 ATS in Ruston. The Techsters beat Hawaii 27-6 at home and New Mexico State at home 45-7. San Jose State lost at home to Hawaii 17-10 and beat the Aggies at home last week 13-10. The Spartans are ranked No. 119 in rush defense, No. 109 in total defense and No. 116 in offense. Rushing-minded La. Tech (179 yards per game) lets out its frustrations in a big way to close out the season.

The Beavers have an attractive spread to beat tonight.

In the Civil War, according to TSR this is the narrowest matchup of the week between No. 17 Oregon State (6-4 ATS, 8-3 SU) and No. 16 Oregon (7-4 ATS, 9-2 SU). I’m taking the 9.5 and going with the Beavers, who have won 6 of 7 SU and ATS after starting the year 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU.

The road team has covered the last three in this series and won SU in the last two. This installment of the fierce rivalry figures to be no different with a Rose Bowl berth on the line.

Oregon gives up a ton of points and has failed to cover in two of its last three, including a 51-42 loss to Stanford and an overtime 44-41 win at Arizona when the Ducks blew a 14-0 lead and needed a TD in the closing seconds to force the extra periods.

According to scoresandodds.com, Oregon State is 18-8 ATS versus the Pac-10 in the last three seasons, is 10-4 as an underdog, 11-6 on the road and 10-4 when on at least a two-game winning streak.

Oregon is 23-14 ATS versus all opponents in the last three seasons, but a less impressive 9-7 ATS versus teams with winning records. Oregon is also 4-4 as a favorite of less than 10 points, while Oregon State is 3-0 in the last three years as an underdog of 10 or less.

FRIDAY

No. 35 Wyoming (7-3 ATS, 5-6 SU) at No. 77 Colorado State (4-6 ATS, 3-8 SU)

Line: Rams –3

The pick: Cowboys

Back on the horse with the Cowboys this week following their 45-10 loss to TCU last week. Wyoming played the Frogs about as well as anyone in the last month, including Utah, standing tied 10-10 in the second quarter and collecting four turnovers. Colorado State has been on a major skid since starting the year 3-0 and 3-0 ATS. The Rams have lost five straight ATS and 8 in a row SU, capped last week by a two-point home loss to a terrible New Mexico team that’s a 44-point underdog to TCU this weekend. They are 0-3 as a favorite while Wyoming is 4-1 as a road underdog and has more to play for with a chance to finish at .500.

No. 2 Temple (8-2 ATS, 9-2 SU) at No. 28 Ohio (6-4 ATS, 8-3 SU)

Line: Temple –3

The pick: Owls

This is a great value for a team with a chance to win its 10th straight game. Temple has outscored its opponents by 12.4 points per game against an average line of –3.3 all season. The Owls are a nation-leading 9.1 points better than the spread this season and are 5-0 ATS on the road, 3-0 as a road favorite. Ohio isn’t chopped liver, but Temple is just on a roll right now.

No. 36 Northern Illinois (5-5 ATS, 7-4 SU) at No. 11 Central Michigan (8-2 ATS, 9-2 SU)

Line: CMU –10

The pick: Chippewas

Another team on a roll, CMU should handle its business against this spread. Northern Illinois has had issues with injury at quarterback and has failed to cover two straight, including a 26-20 win against a Ball State team the Chips whipped 35-3 last Wednesday. CMU has a stout defense to complement Dan LeFevour at QB and are outscoring their opponents by 2 TDs per game. CMU is 3-0 as a home favorite this year, NIU is 2-3 on the road.

No. 78 Toledo (5-6 ATS, 5-6 SU) at No. 37 Bowling Green (6-5 ATS, 6-5 SU)

Line: Bowling Green –7.5

The pick: Falcons

Bowling Green is on its usual November hot streak. Last week’s 36-20 win at home against Akron ran the Falcons’ turkey month record to 10-1 in the last three seasons. Clearly they are a team that finishes seasons well and get a Toledo team that had lost three straight ATS and 4 of 5 SU before a get-well game against MAC doormat Eastern Michigan last Thursday. Toledo has been outscored by nearly 10 per game and is 2-4 ATS on the road this season, 1-3 as an underdog.

SATURDAY

No. 48 North Carolina (5-4 ATS, 8-3 SU) at No. 117 North Carolina State (3-6 ATS, 4-7 SU)

Line: UNC –5.5

The pick: Tar Heels

NC State has been outscored by 11 points per game this year, double the spread in this one. The Wolfpack is –13 in TO margin, not a good quality going up against one of the best defenses in the country. North Carolina handed Boston College its first home loss of the season, a 31-13 win that was the Heels’ fourth in a row ATS and SU. NC State just isn’t very good, either on offense or defense, and has lost its last two by 20 and 28 points. UNC should hand them another spanking.

No. 116 Georgia (3-7 ATS, 6-5 SU) at No. 6 Georgia Tech (7-3 ATS, 10-1 SU)

Line: Yellow Jackets –7.5

The pick: Ramblin’ Wreck

This game is rated the No. 1 mismatch of the week. The Ramblin’ Wreck has been wrecking the spread lately, winning 7 of 8 ATS, beating the number by an average of nearly a TD per game. The Bulldogs have been dogging it all season. Georgia is –17 in turnover margin, giving away another few gifts in a 34-27 loss to Kentucky last weekend. Georgia Tech has its main rival at home and doesn’t need to dominate to cover this spread.

No. 7 Middle Tennessee State (8-3 ATS, 8-3 SU) at No. 74 Louisiana-Monroe (5-5 ATS, 6-5 SU)

Line: MTSU –4

The pick: Blue Raiders

A great price for the Blue Raiders here. Middle Tennessee kept beating up on Sun Belt lower-tier teams last week, 38-14 against Arkansas State, and will be administering another pimp slap on Monroe. ULM has failed to cover four of its last five while MTSU has won its last five ATS and SU by an average of 22 points per game.

No. 73 Troy (7-4 ATS, 8-3 SU) at No. 50 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4-1 ATS, 6-5 SU)

Line: Troy –10

The pick: Trojans

Troy is undefeated SU against Sun Belt competition and 7-1 ATS, with its only loss versus the number by 4 in a 20-point victory over Western Kentucky. The Men of Troy have beaten their conference opponents by more than 20 points per game and should have no problem with the Ragin’ Cajuns this weekend.

No. 42 UCLA (6-5 ATS, 6-5 SU) v. No. 118 USC (2-8 ATS, 7-3 SU)

Line: USC –13

The pick: Bruins

USC has been favored in every game this year and has covered just twice, going zero for its last 6 as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans haven’t won by more than 7 points since a 27-3 win against Cal in Week 5 and UCLA has built some offensive confidence in the last two weeks, covering three of its last four. Both teams will be fired up for this classic rivalry game and it should be played much closer than this spread.

No. 90 Notre Dame (3-8 ATS, 6-5 SU) at No. 31 Stanford (7-4 ATS, 7-4 SU)

Line: Stanford –8

The pick: Irish

I can’t believe I just typed that. But no matter how much heat Charlie Weis is catching for the Irish’s mediocre record, the fact is that 9 of Notre Dame’s last 10 games have been played within 7 points (Washington State, 38-12) and there’s not much reason to think this game should be different. Since Week 2, the average difference for the Irish games has been 2 points and Notre Dame is 2-0 as an underdog. Weis and his team may know he’s gone, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to roll over, especially after some dumbass fan punched Jimmy Clausen in the eye after they lost to UConn. The Irish will be able to score and keep this one close, if not win straight up.

No. 80 Florida State (3-7 ATS, 6-5 SU) at No. 64 Florida (5-5 ATS, 11-0 SU)

Line: Florida –24

The pick: Seminoles

This line is just too big. Florida is 1-4 ATS versus spreads bigger than 20 against teams not named Troy or Florida International this season. Florida State, for all its struggles, does have a capable offense and its biggest weakness (secondary) is also the Gators’ least prolific part of their offense. Spoiling the Gators’ predestined run to the national title game would be plenty sweet for the ‘Noles after a rough season. Like USC-UCLA, this is a classic rivalry that will be played within 10 points or less.

FATTY OF THE WEEK

No. 101 Rice (5-6 ATS, 2-9 SU) at No. 30 Houston (5-4-1 ATS, 9-2 SU)

Line: Houston –28

The pick: Cougars

After a brutal start to the season, Rice has covered three straight against SMU, Tulane and UTEP (a combined 12-19 ATS). Prior to this lighter stretch, Rice was getting beat by 30 points per game. The Owls hung with pass-first offenses of SMU and UTEP, but Houston has the real thing and should put at least 50 on the board against Rice in a battle of crosstown rivals.